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Macron reshuffle: Is France about to get a new prime minister?

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AFP/The Local France - [email protected]
Macron reshuffle: Is France about to get a new prime minister?
French President Emmanuel Macron (L) and French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne (L) at the Hotel des Invalides in Paris, on January 5, 2024. (Photo by STEPHANIE LECOCQ / AFP)

French President Emmanuel Macron could choose a new prime minister as soon as Monday, according to his entourage, as he seeks a new look for a widely criticised government.

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Unlike the president, the prime minister is not directly elected in France. Prime ministers are appointed by the president, and can also be removed from the role without the need for any kind of vote.

READ MORE: What does a French Prime Minister actually do?

Under the French system, the president sets general policies, but the prime minister is responsible for day-to day government management, meaning they often pay the price when an administration runs into turbulence.

As such, it is not uncommon for French presidents to replace their prime ministers from time-to-time, based on the political climate at hand.

Once selected, it is then up to the PM to propose a list of ministers to the president, who can either approve or disapprove.This means that when a new prime minister is appointed, usually a remaniement ministériel (cabinet reshuffle) follows. 

Why would Macron rid of the current prime minister?

Elisabeth Borne, the current prime minister, has held the position for 20 months.

The 62-year old is France's second female head of government. She has pushed through key reforms on pensions and immigration in some 30 new laws and has overcome previous doubts about her future.

However, the political situation in France has been tenuous ever since an immigration bill pushed by Macron was voted down in parliament last month. It was finally passed with many controversial changes imposed by the centre-right opposition.

Some 200 French intellectuals, actors, and union leaders issued a call on Sunday to protest against the law on January 21st, saying it represented a "dangerous turn for the Republic."

Meanwhile, President Macron has also been facing a growing challenge form the far-right Rassemblement National (RN, or National Rally) party of Marine Le Pen. After the bill's passing, Le Pen referred it an "ideological victory" for the RN.

How likely is the reshuffle?

Political commentators in France have been expecting a remaniement for several days, with some having predicted it would have happened this weekend.

Macron met with Borne on Sunday night, but his office told AFP that the discussion centred on flooding in northern France and a looming big freeze across the country.

Nevertheless, observers said they likely discussed a widely-predicted cabinet reshuffle.

Francois Bayrou, a centrist leader whose early endorsement of Macron was key to his initial 2017 election success, told BFM television that "a change is necessary" in the government makeup.

A close Macron adviser told AFP that the president was "finalising his choices" and "things will move at the start of the week, probably with a new prime minister Monday."

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Macron is "in a hurry", added a second advisor.

One associate of the president commented: "Everything is possible, including doing nothing." That would mean Borne could still keep her job. Meanwhile, another advisor expressed concern about the ramifications of a hasty reshuffle, telling AFP "we are maybe moving too quick to condemn" Borne. 

No final decisions appeared to have been taken before the president met with the PM on Sunday.  

Who could replace Borne?

Macron has over the past week consulted with key figures including Bayrou, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, and former prime minister Edouard Philippe about reinvigorating the administration.

If she is replaced, the three leading candidates are 37-year-old Armed Forces minister Sebastien Lecornu, 43-year-old former agriculture minister Julien Denormandie and Education Minister Gabriel Attal, just 34, whose future has been the subject of intense speculation in the last hours.

A source close to the government said that Attal is now the favourite to succeed Borne. If named, he would be France's youngest ever and first openly gay prime minister.

As for the other two: Denormandie has been with Macron from the start of his presidential campaign. Lecornu later jumped ship from the centre-right The Republicans party.

Denormandie almost founded a start-up with Macron in 2014 before becoming his deputy chief of staff when Macron was Economy Minister under President Francois Hollande. Denormandie has been working in the private sector since 2022.

Lecornu joined Macron in 2017, and would follow in the footsteps of two previous prime ministers -- Philippe and Jean Castex -- who also defected from The Republicans.

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Lecornu has become a close adviser to Macron, who has used his experience in local and regional government. 

Macron's political party lacks a majority in parliament and is already riven by disagreements over the immigration law, which was greatly hardened as a condition for receiving necessary support from The Republicans.

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