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French Elections For Members

Who will be France's next prime minister?

Emma Pearson
Emma Pearson - [email protected]
Who will be France's next prime minister?
Who will get the keys to Matignon, the traditional residence of France's prime minister? Photo by THOMAS COEX / AFP

As France heads to the polls, what is at stake is the balance of power in the parliament - personified through the prime minister. So who are the likely candidates?

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France's snap elections - with polling on June 30th and July 7th - have been described as a historic crossroads for the country. And one of the key things to know afterwards is who will be the prime minister, and which party or group of parties will they be representing?

Here's how it works;

The president

Whatever happens at the ballot box, Emmanuel Macron insists that he will remain the president - in France presidential and parliamentary elections are separate and Macron was re-elected in 2022 with a mandate until 2027.

There are only three ways that a president can leave office early - death, resignation or impeachment.

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The elections are to determine the make-up of the Assemblée nationale - although the French president has a significant amount of power, he is very limited in terms of passing any legislation if he does not have a majority in parliament.

The leader of the parliament is the prime minister.

READ ALSO What does a French prime minister actually do?

Who picks the PM?

In France a prime minister is not directly elected - they are appointed by the president. The PM can either be an MP, a senator or someone from outside the world of politics entirely.

If a president's party has an absolute majority in parliament, then the picking of the prime minister is purely a personal choice - usually it will be a close ally, someone politically useful or someone who the president reckons will make them look good.

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However, when a party other than the president's has a majority then things get a lot more complicated and the picking of a prime minister is the subject of political horse-trading as a 'cohabitation' is created.

And if no party wins a majority then things get very complicated indeed. 

Article 8 of the constitution affirms that the choice of PM remains entirely at the president's discretion, whether they have a majority or not.

In reality, however, there's no point picking someone who none of the assembly members will agree to work with, and who will be voted out at the earliest opportunity via a motion of no confidence (motion de censure).

So who are the possible candidates?

Gabriel Attal - the current prime minister is 35-year-old Macron protege Attal. If Macron's party does gain an absolute majority - something that current polling suggests is unlikely - he could continue in the role.

Tradition dictates that a PM offers his or her resignation after an election, but this is not a legal requirement. Macron has indicated that he would keep Attal in post.

Jordan Bardella - if Marine Le Pen's far-right Rassemblement National party wins a majority, their candidate would be 28-year-old party leader Bardella.

Le Pen herself has ruled out taking on the role, preferring to focus on her 2027 presidential bid. However, Bardella has said that he will only take on the role if his party wins an absolute majority - rather than getting involved in building coalitions with other parties. 

If the left alliance of Nouveau Front Populaire wins a majority then they would get to nominate a candidate - however exactly who they would pick has been a subject of fierce discussion and a cause of potential splits within the alliance. For the two pre-election TV debates the alliance nominated a different candidate for each - neither of whom are regarded as front-runners for the PM job. 

Here's a non-exhaustive list of some of the suggested candidates to be the 'locataire de Matignon'.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon - as the founder of La France Insoumise (the largest party within the leftist block) three-time presidential candidate Mélenchon might seem to be the natural choice. However he is a divisive figure even within his own party and seems to have a gift for falling out with allies. For many on the more moderate wing of the alliance - the Parti Socialiste and the Greens - he is not an acceptable candidate.

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Manuel Bompard - Bompard is the leader of La France Insoumise since Mélenchon stepped down and was also the Nouveau Front Populaire representative in the first TV debate where he put in a reasonable if unspectacular performance. Despite these qualifications, however, he is not regarded as a front-runner for the PM job.

François Ruffin - also an LFI member but less divisive than Mélenchon and more willing to work with other parties. A skilled communicator and popular within the left, however the former journalist (director of the Michel-Moore style film Merci Patron !) is not well known to many outside the political sphere. Formerly regarded as a Mélenchon ally he has more recently been positioning himself with the Mélenchon-critics within the party.

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Fabien Roussel - as leader of the Communist party, Roussel is obviously to the far left of the group. On a personal level he has worked hard to come over as more reasonable, pragmatic, funny and open to compromise than Mélenchon, but would be deemed too radical for many.

Olivier Faure - the NPF's representative in the second TV debate, Faure is a long-standing MP and leader of the Parti Socialiste group in parliament. While a personable politician and good communicator, his strong identification with the centre-left makes him unacceptable to some of the more radical elements of the alliance.

Laurent Berger - the former leader of France's largest union the CFDT (he retired last year), Berger has been proposed as a unity candidate. He doesn't have overt links with any of the four parties on the left and as a union leader was generally regarded as a moderate capable of compromise. He has, however, no experience of party politics.

Carole Delga - president of the southern Occitanie region since 2016, Delga is a member of the centre-left Parti Socialiste. A popular regional leader, she has been suggested as someone who has not been part of the Paris power-play between left groups.

Other names mentioned include former Parti Socialiste MP for Tarn-et-Garonne Valérie Rabault, Boris Vallaud (former leader of the Parti Socialiste parliamentary group) and the socialist mayor of Rouen Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol.

Someone else - the wildcard option is that Macron appoints someone from outside the domestic political world entirely - someone who has no party affiliation and who the various warring political factions may, just may, be prepared to work with.

This is most likely to happen if no group wins an absolute majority and parliament is deadlocked.

It's hard to see exactly who would be acceptable to all groups, however - some names thrown around at this early stage include European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde and Senate leader Gérard Larcher.

A few people have also suggested France's football star Kylian Mbappé - we're pretty sure this is a joke but he's certainly more popular than most politicians.

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Pam 2024/06/21 09:23
A very useful summary and guide. Thank you.

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